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Halving event: Scenarios of Future Bitcoin Price Movements

Autor: Financial Market
Timp de citit: 2 minute

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways around $43,000 on Friday, showing a slight recovery from its lowest level at $42,276. This follows Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement that inflation „remains elevated” and a rate cut in March is unlikely, as mentioned last Wednesday.

Market investors appear concerned because the Federal Reserve has not currently disclosed any plans to ease its monetary policy. In this scenario, Bitcoin and other risky assets may experience increased capital outflows in the medium and short term.

According to Powell’s comments, coupled with the upcoming halving event and the approaching BTC on-chain metrics, are the key drivers of Bitcoin’s short-term price.

Due to the impact of „sell the news” ahead of the expected halving event, Bitcoin’s price currently does not show signs of a specific short-term bias, trading around $43,000. However, fundamental indicators suggest a bullish signal that could lead to the start of an upward trend.

After cryptocurrencies followed a drop in major stock indices on Wednesday evening, cautious buying was observed in the market on Thursday. The cryptocurrency market’s current market capitalization is $1.62 trillion, down by 1.9% from 24 hours ago.

Solana remains one of the most volatile cryptocurrencies, decreasing by 4.7%, while XRP, down by 2.6%, continues its decline, losing nearly 20% in the last 30 days.

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There are two scenarios regarding the direction of Bitcoin’s price movement: either the upward trend continues after forming a strong support bottom at $38,505 on January 23, or a deep correction to a level between $36,000 and $34,000 occurs.

The latter aims to form a peak at $48,662, coinciding with the halving event after approximately 90 days, followed by a reversal of the upward trend and the formation of new bottoms.

It is worth noting that Ethereum developers successfully implemented the upgrade (Deneb-Cancun) on the second tenet of the system on January 17, resulting in a chain split within four hours.

The Securities and Exchange Commission will also approve Ethereum exchange-traded funds on May 23, by which time the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency is expected to reach $4,000. I believe that the regulatory body will follow the same strategy for Ethereum as it did with Bitcoin.

Visa has also entered into a partnership with Transak, a Web3 payment provider, to enable the conversion of cryptocurrencies into fiat money on bank cards. This service is available in more than 145 countries, supporting the development and strength of the cryptocurrency market and favoring a bullish scenario for Bitcoin in the medium and short term.

Crypto analysis on behalf of  XS.com